Introduction: Face up to the fact that "ultra-low emissions" cannot be clean energy. Only based on this, it is more meaningful to talk about environmental issues such as carbon emissions.
Recently, some media in our country often promote the ultra-low emission coal power industry as clean energy. The reason is that China's ultra-low-emission coal power is already cleaner than natural gas power generation. In fact, this is the result of one-sided publicity by some of our media. Under the influence of this misleading propaganda that coal power is also a clean energy, China's coal power not only has a near serious overcapacity, but also continues its crazy expansion.
The 13th Five-Year Plan proposes that coal power must cancel and postpone 150 million project construction during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, and that the installed capacity of coal power at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan should be controlled within 1.1 billion kilowatts. However, whether the goal of controlling coal power capacity in the 13th Five-Year Plan can be achieved in the end is still unknown. Even if the goal of controlling coal power during the 13th Five-Year Plan is reached, the situation of China's power energy structure and excess capacity will still be very grim.
Why is there a serious overcapacity of coal power in China, but it is difficult to restrain the disorderly expansion?
As we all know, in order to curb the disorderly growth of coal power in China for the past year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a series of documents to strengthen the macro-control of coal power construction. In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Bureau also initiated special supervision work on the planning and construction of national coal power projects. A number of coal-fired power projects that have been approved in violation of regulations, have not been approved for construction, and are not ready to start have been suspended. However, up to now, the actual scale and speed of coal power construction in various parts of China have not been reduced. Even in the next 13th Five-Year Plan period, coal power will increase the most among various power sources in China.
Although the requirements of China ’s 13th Five-Year Plan for Electric Power are “to prioritize the deployment of non-fossil energy hydropower, wind power, photovoltaic and nuclear power generation projects, the shortfall is supplemented by gas and coal power.” However, it is very difficult to stop and postpone approved coal power under construction. Therefore, it is not easy to cancel 150 million coal power during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Therefore, in fact, the actual controlling factor of China's 13th Five-Year Plan is coal power. Since China's 13th Five-Year Plan will increase coal power by at least 200 million, the increase of other power sources must be concessions for this.
For this reason, compared with the 12th Five-Year Plan, China's hydropower, wind power and solar power generation growth rates have all been significantly reduced. Even so, China's 13th Five-Year Power Plan still has difficulty reaching the balance between supply and demand. By the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, China will have at least 1.2 billion kilowatts of thermal power (1.1 billion coal power). If it is calculated based on the relatively efficient 6000 generation hours, the total power generation will reach 720 billion kWh. This has reached the upper limit of China's total electricity consumption (6.8-7.2 trillion kWh). Theoretically, China's thermal power installations have completely occupied all the electricity space.
In the face of this apparent power imbalance, the planning department explained that our coal power companies must accept the reality of declining operating hours, implement flexible transformation, and assume the task of peak regulation of the power grid. It is indeed feasible to use coal power to peak-adjust power users, but it is a bit difficult to use coal power to peak intermittent renewable energy. Regardless of the aspect, peak shaving with coal power is definitely not as good as hydropower, especially pumped storage. At present, the construction of pumped storage power stations in China has lagged behind the national plan for a long time. The most fundamental reason for this is that China's coal-fired power generation capacity is seriously in excess. In fact, the load of the power grid only has a trough and there is no sharp edge. In this case, the power grid cannot require pumped storage, and of course there will be no enthusiasm for construction.